USMCA’s First Test: What will be decided — and what is at stake — on July 1?
This report analyzes the strategic challenges and institutional implications of the first review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), scheduled for July 1, 2026. Given the significance of this process for North America’s trade architecture over the next 16 years, the document examines the current regulatory framework and identifies the chapters that present the highest levels of tension in the negotiating agenda. Through a comparative approach, it assesses three forward-looking scenarios—the extension of the agreement, the launch of an extended negotiation process, or the possibility of unilateral withdrawal—identifying the key determining factors and the likelihood of each outcome. Finally, the study explores the national positions of Mexico, the United States, and Canada, breaking down sectoral interests, key figures, and the political strategies with which each partner approaches this stage, providing a comprehensive view of the future of the regional trade bloc.